Australia's Housing Construction Gap: What the Accord Data Shows

Short answer

The National Housing Accord targets 1.2 million well-located homes over five years from 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2029.

The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council reported in August 2026 that 308,000 gross dwellings had been completed over the first seven quarters. Its model now projects the national target will be reached in the December quarter 2030.

That is a modelled delay, not a statement that a fixed number of homes has permanently disappeared. Approvals, commencements, projects under construction and completions are different measures, and future quarterly data can change the estimated completion date.

Read the August 2026 state progress update for the Council's jurisdiction table and data dates.

Target, progress and timing

The five-year target is equivalent to an arithmetic average of 240,000 completed homes a year. Delivery will not be even across months or years, so that average is useful for scale but is not an official monthly target.

The Council's August report records:

• 308,000 gross, seasonally adjusted completions over seven of the 20 Accord quarters;
• 244,000 dwellings under construction in the March quarter 2026, the highest since the series began in 1984;
• June quarter 2026 approvals 26% above the June quarter 2024 level; and
• March quarter 2026 commencements 15% above the June quarter 2024 level.

The reference periods differ because the ABS releases the series on different schedules. Do not compare a June approvals figure with a March completions figure as if both describe the same projects at the same time.

Why stronger approvals do not immediately become completions

Housing moves through a pipeline:

1. approval;
2. commencement;
3. work under construction; and
4. completion.

An approved project may wait for finance, pre-sales, site preparation or a builder. A commenced dwelling can stay under construction for several quarters. Large apartment projects and detached houses also have different schedules.

The approvals, commencements and completions guide explains the definitions and why one stage does not guarantee the next.

Current constraints identified by the Council

The Council says house construction costs rose 2% in the June quarter 2026 and were 51% above their pre-pandemic level. Higher costs can make some projects less financially feasible.

It also expects softer market sentiment and recent interest-rate increases to defer some construction. Those are national supply observations. They do not establish the viability, price or completion date of one development.

Labour, materials, site conditions, approvals, finance and project mix can all affect delivery. The weight of each factor varies between jurisdictions and projects.

What the gap does not prove

National supply data do not determine:

• whether property prices or rents will rise or fall;
• whether a particular new build will finish on time;
• whether an established property is good value;
• whether a rental property will avoid vacancy;
• how much a lender will approve; or
• whether buying, building or investing is suitable for a person.

Avoid turning a supply shortfall into an investment recommendation. Prices and rents also depend on household demand, income, credit conditions, listings, migration, dwelling type and location.

Checks for a buyer or builder

For a specific new home, check the contract, builder, approvals, finance, progress, specifications and proposed handover evidence. Keep a separate allowance for temporary accommodation, construction-loan interest, storage and variations.

The house-build timeline and delay-cost guide provides a stage checklist and a worked cost example. The Property Purchase Cost Calculator estimates land and transaction costs but does not estimate the building contract or completion date.

Separate the Accord from other housing programs

The 1.2 million-home Accord target is broader than the combined 40,000-home target associated with the Housing Australia Future Fund and National Housing Accord Facility.

Do not add or compare those figures without checking program scope and dates. The Housing Australia Future Fund audit update explains the separate program measures.

Sources

• National Housing Supply and Affordability Council: Quarterly Report, August 2026, published 21 August 2026 and checked 24 August 2026.
• Australian Treasury: Delivering the National Housing Accord, checked 24 August 2026.

General information disclaimer

This article provides general information about aggregate housing-supply data. It is not financial, property, planning, legal or investment advice, and it is not a forecast of prices, rents or an individual project. Data and modelled dates can be revised. Check current primary sources and obtain property-specific professional advice where appropriate.

Last updated: 24 August 2026.