NSW Rental Reforms One Year On: What the First Impact Report Found

Short summary

NSW Fair Trading's first analysis of the state's rental reforms found no observable fall in rental stock or housing investment patterns during the early monitoring period from October 2024 to March 2026.

Active rental bonds rose 1.1% over the year to 988,603 by March 2026. Tenancies lasting more than five years increased from about 15% in 2024 to 20.4% by March 2026.

The NSW Government highlighted the findings on 13 July 2026. The underlying report is early monitoring, not a causal evaluation. Bond and lending data cannot prove the reforms produced the result, and they do not predict the rent or vacancy rate for a particular property.

Which rental reforms are covered

The reforms were passed on 24 October 2024 and commenced in stages:

• rent-increase and fee provisions began on 31 October 2024;
• major changes covering no-grounds termination, pets and fee-free ways to pay rent began on 19 May 2025;
• changes to supporting documents began on 20 June 2025;
• the mandatory tenancy-ending survey began on 1 July 2025;
• the Centrepay payment requirement began on 2 March 2026.

Current legal obligations should be checked on the NSW Fair Trading changes page. This article summarises official data and is not tenancy or legal advice.

What the bond data showed

Fair Trading recorded about 499,000 bond lodgements and 466,000 refunds between October 2024 and March 2026. The number of active bonds reached 988,603 in March 2026, up 1.1% over 12 months.

A rental bond is a useful administrative indicator, but it is not a complete count of every available rental home. A bond can remain active while a property is occupied, and movements in active bonds do not directly measure vacancy or advertised supply.

The report also found the share of tenancies lasting more than five years rose to 20.4% by March 2026, from about 15% in 2024. That put the longer-tenure group level with tenancies lasting one to two years.

This is roughly a five percentage-point change, not a 5% relative increase. It also does not establish that the reforms caused longer tenancies.

What the lending data showed

The Fair Trading report used ABS lending data as one indicator of investor activity. NSW investors represented 44% of new housing loan commitments in the March quarter 2026, the largest state share.

The 13 July ministerial release also states that total new NSW loan commitments rose 15.1% and investor lending rose 23.4% between September 2024 and December 2025.

Loan commitments do not prove a financed property entered the rental market. They can cover different property purposes, and later sales, occupancy choices and settlements affect the eventual rental stock.

What this means for property estimates

No RealEstateCalc formula changes because of this report. The findings do not provide a suburb vacancy rate, expected rent increase or property return assumption.

An investor can use the Investment Property Yield Calculator with an actual rent, a clearly chosen vacancy assumption and known holding costs. Do not substitute the 1.1% active-bond movement for a vacancy rate.

The Buy vs Rent Calculator can compare user-entered scenarios, but it does not determine whether a tenancy will continue, whether rent can be increased or whether a notice is valid.

Worked example: why assumptions still matter

Assume an investment property is worth $800,000 and expected rent is $700 a week.

• Gross annual rent before vacancy: $36,400.
• At a 2% vacancy assumption: $35,672 effective rent.
• At a 5% vacancy assumption: $34,580 effective rent.

The $1,092 difference flows directly into gross yield and cash flow. The bond report does not tell the owner which vacancy assumption is appropriate for the property. Local leasing evidence and current costs are still required.

What remains uncertain

Fair Trading says the administrative and secondary datasets were not designed for a causal evaluation and omit variables that may affect rental supply, tenure and investment.

The monitoring period is also short. Interest rates, dwelling completions, prices, population, tax settings and local supply can move at the same time as tenancy law.

The careful conclusion is that Fair Trading did not observe a negative impact in the indicators reviewed. It is too strong to say the reforms caused rental supply or long-term tenure to increase.

Sources

• NSW Government: rental stock indicators resilient, published 13 July 2026 and checked 19 July 2026.
• NSW Fair Trading: NSW rental market analysis, checked 19 July 2026.
• NSW Fair Trading: changes to rental laws, checked 19 July 2026.
• NSW Government: rental bond data, updated 8 July 2026 and checked 19 July 2026.
• ABS: Lending indicators, March quarter 2026, checked 19 July 2026.

General information disclaimer

This article provides general information only. It is not legal advice, tenancy advice, financial advice, a rental forecast or an investment recommendation. Check current NSW Fair Trading guidance and speak with a licensed professional where appropriate.