RBA August 2026 Meeting Preview: Inflation and Mortgage Checks

Short summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia's next cash rate decision is due at 2.30 pm AEST on Tuesday 11 August 2026. The Monetary Policy Board meets on 10 and 11 August, and the August Statement on Monetary Policy is scheduled for release with the decision.

The cash rate target is currently 4.35%, effective from 17 June 2026. The June Consumer Price Index release showed annual inflation easing from 4.0% in May to 3.8% in June, while annual trimmed mean inflation was unchanged at 3.6%.

The mortgage rates page separates the cash rate from lagged RBA housing lending averages, while the market data dashboard shows the recent decision series.

Those figures are relevant context. They do not reveal what the Board will decide. Mortgage holders can compare repayment scenarios now, then use the rate and effective date announced by their lender if a retail loan rate changes.

Use the Mortgage Repayment Calculator for your balance, current rate and remaining term. The cash rate is not the rate to enter unless it is genuinely the rate on the loan.

When the August decision is due

The RBA's published timetable is:

The Statement on Monetary Policy matters because it contains the RBA staff's assessment of current conditions, forecasts and risks. It is not a promise that inflation, rates or property prices will follow one path.

This article will need an update after the decision. Until then, any claim that the Board has chosen to raise, hold or cut is speculation.

What the latest inflation figures show

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the June 2026 CPI on 29 July.

Annual headline inflation slowed from 4.0% in May. Annual trimmed mean inflation, which reduces the effect of large price movements at both ends of the distribution, remained at 3.6%.

The CPI release is one input into the Board's assessment. The RBA also considers labour-market conditions, demand, wages, financial conditions, overseas developments and the outlook. A single monthly figure does not mechanically determine the decision.

Read the June 2026 CPI housing update for the component detail and release limitations.

Housing CPI is not house-price growth

The CPI housing group rose 6.8% over the year, but that is not a measure of established house or apartment prices.

The ABS housing group includes items such as rents, new dwellings purchased by owner-occupiers, major renovations, property rates and utilities. Existing dwelling purchases, land and mortgage interest are excluded from the CPI.

That distinction prevents a common mistake. A 6.8% housing CPI result should not be entered as:

• an expected property growth rate;
• a mortgage interest rate;
• a rent increase for a particular property; or
• a forecast for building costs.

Each of those questions needs its own data and assumptions.

A 25 basis point mortgage scenario

The following is a calculation scenario, not a forecast of the RBA decision or lender pricing.

Assume a $600,000 principal-and-interest loan with 30 years remaining:

The calculation holds the balance and remaining term constant. It excludes fees, offset balances, redraw, interest-only periods and any difference between the RBA decision date and a lender's repricing date.

If a lender changes the retail rate, use its notice rather than simply adding the cash-rate movement to the old mortgage rate. Lenders make their own pricing decisions and can use different effective dates.

The Rate Change Impact Tool can compare the old and new repayment side by side. The home loan rate-change checklist explains which figures to take from the lender notice.

What mortgage holders can check now

Before the 11 August announcement:

1. Record the current loan balance, retail interest rate and remaining term.
2. Check whether the loan is variable, fixed or split.
3. Confirm the minimum repayment and the amount actually being transferred.
4. Keep any offset balance separate from the loan balance.
5. Run a 0.25 and 0.50 percentage point higher-rate scenario as a budget check, not a prediction.
6. Check the lender notice after any repricing for the effective date and new minimum repayment.
7. Contact the lender early if the new amount may be difficult to pay.

ASIC Moneysmart says help is available for people having difficulty with mortgage repayments. A calculator cannot assess hardship options or replace a lender conversation.

What remains uncertain

Before 2.30 pm on 11 August, the decision is unknown. After the decision, the effect on a particular loan can still be uncertain until the lender confirms:

• whether its retail rate will change;
• which products are affected;
• the effective date;
• the new minimum repayment;
• how an existing payment instruction will be handled; and
• whether fixed or split portions are unaffected.

The RBA cash rate influences other interest rates, but it is not a retail mortgage rate and does not guarantee equal or immediate pass-through.

Sources

• RBA: Board meeting schedules, including the 10 and 11 August meeting. Checked 3 August 2026.
• RBA: Cash rate target overview, current target and next update time. Checked 3 August 2026.
• RBA: Coming up, decision, Statement on Monetary Policy, media conference and minutes timetable. Checked 3 August 2026.
• ABS: Consumer Price Index, Australia, June 2026, released 29 July 2026 and checked 3 August 2026.
• ABS: Housing in the CPI, including inclusions and exclusions. Checked 3 August 2026.
• ASIC Moneysmart: Problems paying your mortgage, checked 3 August 2026.

General information disclaimer

This article provides general information and indicative calculations only. It is not financial advice, credit advice, a lender quote, a loan offer, an approval, a property forecast or a prediction of the RBA's decision. Actual rates, repayments and effective dates depend on the loan contract and lender. Check the RBA decision and the lender's notice before relying on a changed amount.

Last updated: 3 August 2026.