Council Projects Housing Accord Target for Late 2030

Short summary

The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council now estimates that Australia will reach the National Housing Accord target in the December quarter 2030, about 18 months after the five-year target period ends on 30 June 2029.

Its quarterly report, published on 21 August 2026, counts 308,000 gross dwelling completions over the first seven quarters of the 20-quarter Accord period. That is 26% of the 1.2 million target.

Approvals and commencements have improved from the quarter before the Accord started, but the state results are uneven and the Council says its projected completion dates remain uncertain and will be revised as new data arrive.

The release changes no RealEstateCalc formula. It is housing-supply context, not a property price forecast, approval for a project or estimate of what one household can borrow.

What changed in the August report

The Accord target is 1.2 million well-located homes over five years from 1 July 2024. The Council's previous national estimate pointed to the September quarter 2030. The August report moved that estimate back one quarter to December 2030.

The headline measures use different reference periods:

The 244,000 dwellings under construction were the highest result since the series began in 1984. That does not mean all 244,000 will finish in the next quarter. Projects can remain under construction across several quarters, and detached houses and higher-density projects can have different timelines.

Read building approvals versus commencements and completions before comparing the pipeline figures as if they measure the same stage.

State and territory progress

The Council reports each jurisdiction's share of its population-based Accord target approved and completed, plus a modelled quarter in which that share may be reached.

These figures do not rank housing quality, affordability or planning performance. The Council notes that a jurisdiction's path can be affected by its mix of detached and higher-density construction. Territory approvals are also reported in original terms because seasonally adjusted data are not available, while state approvals use seasonally adjusted figures.

Why approvals and completions can move differently

The report shows rolling 12-month approvals increased in most jurisdictions, but rolling completions fell nationally by 4%.

That is possible because an approval is an earlier pipeline stage. Finance, pre-sales, site work, labour, materials, weather and project complexity can affect whether and when an approved dwelling starts and finishes.

For example, Queensland's rolling approvals were 23% higher than the previous 12 months, while rolling completions were 2% lower. That does not prove the new approvals have failed. Many may be too recent to have reached completion.

The house build timeline and delay-cost guide explains the stages and timing costs for an individual house. National aggregates cannot provide a completion date for one contract.

Construction costs remain a supply risk

The Council says house construction costs rose 2% in the June quarter 2026 and were 51% above their pre-pandemic level. In real terms, its measure was 0.2% higher than at the start of the Accord period.

Those are index movements, not builder quotes. A project budget still depends on the site, design, specification, contract, labour, materials and timing. The construction cost index guide explains why an index should not be treated as a quote or a contractual price adjustment.

What this means for calculators

No tax threshold, duty rate, loan formula or rental-yield input changed because of this report.

The Property Purchase Cost Calculator estimates an individual purchase using the price, state and cost assumptions entered. The Mortgage Repayment Calculator models a loan balance, rate and term. Neither uses the Accord forecast and neither predicts property prices or construction delivery.

For a new build, keep land and purchase costs separate from the building contract, variations and holding costs. A national supply forecast cannot replace current quotes, contract review or a lender assessment.

Important limits

• The 308,000 figure is gross, seasonally adjusted completions over seven of the Accord's 20 quarters.
• Approvals data are current to June 2026, while commencements, construction and completions are current to March quarter 2026.
• The national highlights use information available on 6 August 2026.
• State target shares were calculated from population shares when the Accord was agreed.
• The projected dates come from a model using approvals and broader market assumptions.
• The Council says the outlook is significantly uncertain and future reports will revise the dates.
• The 1.2 million Accord target is separate from the combined 40,000-home HAFF and NHAF program target.

The existing housing construction shortfall explainer covers the broader policy context. This update is limited to the Council's August state table and current model.

Sources

• National Housing Supply and Affordability Council: Quarterly Report, August 2026, published 21 August 2026 and checked 24 August 2026.
• Australian Treasury: Delivering the National Housing Accord, checked 24 August 2026.

General information disclaimer

This article provides general information about aggregate housing-supply data and a government advisory council's model. It is not financial, property, legal, planning or investment advice, and it is not a price forecast or project completion guarantee. Data and projected dates can be revised. Check the source and obtain property-specific professional advice where appropriate.

Last updated: 24 August 2026.