RBA Says Scheduled Mortgage Payments Are Near Their 2024 Peak

Short summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia says scheduled mortgage payments are now close to their 2024 peak as a share of household disposable income.

In a 13 August speech, Assistant Governor Christopher Kent also said housing credit growth had started to slow and new housing lending had declined noticeably. The RBA assessed financial conditions as somewhat restrictive, while stressing that the assessment remains uncertain.

These are economy-wide observations. They do not show the repayment on one loan, predict the next cash-rate decision or determine what a lender will approve. Use the Mortgage Repayment Calculator with your balance, rate and remaining term, or compare two entered rates with the Rate Change Impact Calculator.

What changed

The Monetary Policy Board left the cash-rate target at 4.35% on 11 August 2026. Two days later, the RBA explained why it judged current monetary policy to be somewhat restrictive.

The housing and mortgage signals in the speech were:

• scheduled mortgage payments had risen and were close to their 2024 peak as a share of household disposable income;
• housing credit growth had started to slow;
• new housing lending had declined noticeably;
• Sydney and Melbourne housing prices had declined; and
• auction clearance rates had fallen below their long-run averages.

The RBA did not publish an individual repayment benchmark. The payment measure is an aggregate share of household disposable income and includes borrowers with different balances, rates, loan ages and repayment structures.

What "somewhat restrictive" means

The RBA describes monetary policy as restrictive when financial conditions are restraining aggregate demand. It looks beyond the cash rate to borrowing costs, access to finance, asset prices, the exchange rate and other conditions that affect spending and investment.

That assessment is not the same as saying every household is under mortgage stress. Some households have no mortgage, some have smaller balances, and some may hold cash in an offset account or be ahead on repayments. Others may have less room in their budget after scheduled payments rise.

The speech also noted that funding remained readily available to banks, households and businesses. In other words, the RBA saw tighter conditions overall, not a general withdrawal of credit.

A worked repayment comparison

Consider a $600,000 principal-and-interest loan with 30 years remaining.

At a constant 6.00% rate, the modelled monthly repayment is about $3,597. At a constant 6.75%, it is about $3,892, an increase of roughly $294 a month.

This is a clean comparison of two entered rates. It is not a reconstruction of the RBA's household-income measure or a forecast of where mortgage rates will go. An actual repricing may occur after part of the loan term has passed, and lender calculations, fees, offset balances and repayment timing can change the result.

Use the Mortgage Stress Test Calculator to compare the entered repayment with an entered household budget. That result is a scenario, not a hardship finding or a lender assessment.

Why new lending and scheduled payments can move differently

Scheduled payments reflect loans already outstanding. New housing lending measures new borrower-accepted finance commitments.

Those series can move in different directions for a time. Existing variable-rate borrowers may receive higher scheduled payments after earlier cash-rate increases even while fewer new commitments are being accepted. Fixed-rate expiry, refinancing, repayment type and the timing between approval and settlement also matter.

The latest ABS Lending Indicators release found that the number of new dwelling loan commitments fell 5.4% in the June quarter 2026. Read the June quarter home-loan update for the figures and scope. The ABS release and RBA speech are related, but they do not measure the same thing.

What it means for calculator estimates

The speech does not require a formula change to RealEstateCalc's mortgage or borrowing-power calculators.

For a useful personal scenario:

1. Use the current loan balance, not the original amount borrowed.
2. Use the actual rate shown by the lender and the remaining term.
3. Model a higher rate separately rather than treating it as certain.
4. Include recurring ownership costs outside the mortgage repayment.
5. Check the lender's repayment notice before relying on an estimate.

The Cash Rate glossary entry explains why the RBA target and a retail mortgage rate are not the same number.

What remains uncertain

The RBA said housing had softened by somewhat more than the increase in interest rates alone might imply. It identified the earlier 2026 rate increases, a pull-back after strong price growth and federal tax changes as relevant influences.

It did not quantify one cause for the housing slowdown or forecast a particular price path. Auction results are also revised as more outcomes are reported, and city-wide price measures can conceal different results by suburb and dwelling type.

The Board will continue to assess inflation, demand, the labour market and financial conditions. A speech explaining the current stance is not advance guidance that the next cash-rate move will be up, down or unchanged.

Sources

• RBA: The Restrictive Stance of Monetary Policy, delivered 13 August 2026 and checked 17 August 2026.
• RBA: August 2026 Monetary Policy Decision, released 11 August 2026 and checked 17 August 2026.
• ABS: Lending Indicators, June Quarter 2026, released 14 August 2026 and checked 17 August 2026.

General information disclaimer

This article provides general information about aggregate Australian financial conditions. It is not financial advice, credit advice, a loan offer, an approval, a property forecast or a recommendation. Rates, repayments, household budgets and lender policies vary. Check current information and speak with a licensed professional where appropriate.

Last updated: 17 August 2026.